In order to more precisely describe the bladed disk assemblies deformation and the control of the aero-engine, a highly accurate and efficient method of probability analysis called finite element-extremum response surface method (FE-ERSM) is proposed, based on previously determined results. Compared with the response surface method (RSM) and Monte Carlo method (MCM), it significantly improves efficiency without reducing accuracy and has high value in important engineering applications. This paper considers many key indeterminate factors for modeling and analysis, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force, and the boundary conditions. The radial deformation reliability, radial deformation displacement, historical sample, extreme response surface, relative probability distribution of its stress and radial deformation, and sensitivity of the stress distribution are obtained. The main factors affecting bladed disk assemblies deformation and stress distribution are investigated via the model′s sensitivity analysis. Finally, compared with the RSM and MCM approach, the results show that this new approach is more efficient and reasonable in its calculations.