基于后验分布的限制型故障样本量确定方法
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TP806.1

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(国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(61433011)


Restricted Fault Sample Size Determination Method Based on Posterior Distrubution
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    摘要:

    针对现有测试性验证方案均选用最小样本量原则,在相同的双方风险及要求下会得到相同的样本量以及故障判据,而未考虑工程应用中不同装备系统具备不同结构和功能复杂度的问题,提出一种基于后验分布的限制型故障样本量确定方法。首先,根据装备系统结构划分构建层次Bayes网络测试性验证模型,融合各结构层次中蕴含的先验信息推导系统故障检测率的后验分布;其次,基于后验分布样本集,给出最小样本量原则下的样本量确定方法,再通过比例分层样本量分配方法,结合装备系统功能特性,给出限制型故障样本量确定方法;最后,通过实例进行分析。结果表明,该方法既能充分运用装备结构信息,较之经典验证方案以及传统Bayes方案,在相同指标约束下能有效降低样本量,又能考虑系统功能特性,保证了测试性验证结论的准确性和合理性。

    Abstract:

    In view of the problems that the existing testability verification schemes usually select the principle of minimum sample size, which causes that the same sample size and fault criteria are obtained under the same risk and requirements without considering different structural and functional complexity of different equipment systems in engineering, a restricted fault sample size determination method based on posterior distribution is proposed. According to the structure of equipment systems, the hierarchical Bayesian network testability verification model is constructed, and the priori information contained in each structure level is used to derive the posterior distribution of fault detection rate. Based on the posterior distribution sample set, firstly the sample size determination method under the principle of minimum sample size is given, and then the proportional stratified sample size allocation method is combined with the functional characteristics of equipment in order to give a restricted fault sample size determination method, finally the method is validated by an example. The results show that on the one hand the method can fully utilize the equipment structure information, and can effectively reduce the sample size under the same index constraint compared with the classical verification scheme and the traditional Bayes scheme, on the other hand the functional characteristics of the system can be considered to ensure the accuracy and rationality of the testability verification conclusion.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-12-25
  • 出版日期: 2020-12-30
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